Thank God the UFC is back in action next weekend. It has been a dreadful two weeks without the cream of the crop in the Octagon…I honestly think Dana White should be criminally prosecuted for making us wait three weeks for more headkicks, guillotines and spinning backfists.
Before we get started, I wanted to say that this card is less than enticing on paper….but it has some great spots here for us to make some money. The card starts at 4:00PM ET on ESPN+ and I plan to have a few more plays before introductions start on 01/11.
Prelims (in order)
| Weight Class | |||
| Lightweight | Nurullo Aliev(-500) | vs. | Yanal Ashmouz(+350) |
| Women’s Straweight | Fatima Kline(-850) | vs. | Viktoriia Dudakova(+500) |
| Light Heavyweight | Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-235) | vs. | Bruno Lopes(+190) |
| Women’s flyweight | Ernesta Kareckaite(-280) | vs. | Nicolle Caliari(+230) |
| Welterweight | Preston Parsons(+150) | vs. | Andreas Gustafsson(-180) |
| Lightweight | Thiago Moises(-190) | vs. | Trey Ogden(+160) |
| Middleweight | Marco Tulio(-550) | vs. | Ihor Potieria(+375) |
| Flyweight | Jose Johnson(-195) | vs. | Felipe Bunes(+165) |
Main Card (in order)
| Weight Class | |||
| Welterweight | Punahele Soriano(+170) | vs. | Uros Medic(-200) |
| Featherweight | Christian Rodriguez(+185) | vs. | Austin Bashi(-225) |
| Middleweight | Chris Curtis(+210) | vs. | Roman Kopylov(-260) |
| Middleweight | Cesar Almeida(-310) | vs. | Abdul Razak Alhassan(+245) |
| Welterweight | Santiago Ponzinibbio(-110) | vs. | Carlston Harris(-110) |
| Women’s Straweight | Mackenzie Dern(+170) | vs. | Amanda Ribas(-200) |
Picks and Predictions
Alright, now that we’re past the mundane crap..let’s get down to business. I absolutely love this card for the purpose of betting. It doesn’t have the “big stars” that some cards may get, but we love to find our diamonds in the rough.
Fatima Kline vs. Viktoriia Dudakova
Man, I love this fight. Now, the current line on Fanduel SportsBook favors Kline at -850. Do I hate that price? Yes. But Kline absolutely deserves it. She’s coming off a loss again Jasmine Jasudavicius, a UFC vet that definitely taught Kline a lesson. I see Kline getting up for this fight and trying to make a stamp on her young UFC career.
On the other end of the cage is a woman in Dudakova who is coming off a split decision heartbreaker to Sam Hughes. This was an absolute STUNNER. Dudakova came in to this fight undefeated and was absolutely shocked by a mediocre Hughes.
I got Kline in this one by Unanimous Decision. Sprinkle her into any parlay you like today.
Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
This is Bunes’ second fight in the UFC and he is coming in against a younger Jose Johnson whom has now had 3 UFC bouts under his belt.
While Johnson is 1-2 in those 3 bouts, I think he has the advantage in this one. Bunes is an older fighter, but not one that comes in with a ton of experience that you’d typically see out of a 35 year old. Johnson, 29, has a 2.5 inch reach advantage and is the more accurate fighter by a longshot (72% sig strike accuracy compared to 56%). Bunes will probably look for a takedown early, but I believe Johnson’s TD defense will be fine in this one.
If it stays on the feet, I have Johnson by KO/TKO or Unanimous Decision
Amanda Ribas vs. Mackenzie Dern
Both fighters come in at 31 years of age and have 14-5(Dern) and 12-5(Ribas) records respectively. In the first matchup, Ribas picked Dern apart. Granted, this was way back in 2019 and the two fighters were way less seasoned than at this point in their careers.
Ribas won the first matchup by UD. The fight stayed on the feet in the majority of the fight, with a total of 1 minute and 54 seconds of it being on the ground. Impressively, Ribas stuffed all 6 takedowns against Dern in the bout. Ribas is coming off of a loss while Dern is coming off a UD in August.
When this fight opened up, the line on Fanduel had Ribas as a slight favorite at -166. Since opening, she has gotten as low as -225 and I believe that’s rightfully so. I see Ribas picking Dern apart again on the feet. If she can keep herself off the cage and in the middle of the Octagon, I see this one being another UD for Ribas.
Take Ribas via Decision
Parlay of the Evening
In any parlay you have tonight, or for the next week….include Fatima Kline. The line there at -850 is too steep to take itself, but I’ve added it to every parlay I’m throwing down today.
My POE:
Kline ML, Ribas ML, Almeida ML
Fanduel price: +117
JMDSportsTalk 
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